Of course nobody knows. But let the record speak for itself. We can track City Hall management for large projects. To highlight just four recent projects:
- Artillery Park Aquatic Centre : 70% over initial budget – (from $8m to $11m to $13.6m)
- Grand Theatre : 166% over initial budget – ($6m to $9m to $12m to $16m)
- J.K. Tett Centre for the Performing Arts : 108% over initial budget (from $6m to $11m to $12.5)
- Rogers-K-Rock Centre : 82% over initial budget (from $25.5m to $33m to $46.5m)
This strongly suggests that there is a real possibility of cost overruns on a project City Hall dubs ‘the largest in the history of Kingston’.
If we take a 35% overrun, and apply that against the present cost estimate of $120,000,000, that comes to an extra $42,000,000
The EVA estimate, now badly out of date, included a $17 m provision for cost overruns, or about 14 percent of the initial estimate. Past experience would suggest a critical re-evaluation.
Even if the city succeeds in getting funding help from the federal and provincial governments, any cost overruns are most likely to be the responsibility of City of Kingston taxpayers.